‘The recession is over, according to one of the nation’s most respected economic think-tanks.’

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/analysts-the-recession-has-ended-1702147.html

Phew! Thank goodness for that!

And there was everyone thinking it was going to be deep, nasty and a long slow recovery!

The first paragraph of the Independent story reads:

‘The UK’s surprising resilience is confirmed by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), an independent body with an enviable record for accuracy. It says that the economy hit rock bottom in as early as March and returned to growth, albeit modestly, in April and May’

Here is a link to the NIESR data:

http://www.niesr.ac.uk/pdf/110609_84508.pdf (requires Adobe)

The headline reads:

ECONOMIC STABILISATION CONFIRMED. OUTPUT RISING IN APRIL AND MAY

So I’m off to buy a new car and drive to the estate agent!

But then again, according to Theo Paphitis: “I don’t think we are anywhere near the end of the recession. We have probably had a bit of growth but this will definitely be a W-shaped recession. We have got a lame duck Government.”

And…..

The NIESR UK Economy Forecast is decidely grim! (although it was written earlier than the most recent release)

‘The recession is on track to become the most serious since the 1930s as GDP declines by 4.3 per cent in 2009. There is a real possibility that GDP will fall more this year than in 1931. The pace of decline to date shows a remarkable resemblance to that of the depression of the early 1930s, though that similarity should be broken as a feeble recovery gets under way in the final quarter of this year. ‘